This column originally appeared in the September 30, 2007 issue of the Poughkeepsie Journal.

Most people pay attention to climate change and global warming during the summer. Blistering hot spells, hurricanes, tornadoes, and severe thunderstorms often cause people to believe that the climate is warming, just as scientists have been predicting for many years.

In our region, however, winter temperatures have increased more than summer temperatures during the past few decades. There have also been important changes in the form of winter precipitation, with a rise in rain and a decrease in snow. These changes, detailed in a recent report from the Union of Concerned Scientists, are mirrored in long-term data collected at the Institute of Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, NY.

Winter climate change raises important scientific and public policy questions, including questions about the positive aspects of climate change— something we don't hear about much. A decrease in the number of very cold nights (say below - 25° F) would mean fewer frozen pipes and failing furnaces. We might also expect fewer ice-related automobile accidents and human falls on slippery sidewalks. Higher winter temperatures will allow the spread of species that are adapted to warm climates. But before we get excited about growing bananas, we should remember that warm weather is also a boon for pests, like mosquitoes, and soil pathogens that are detrimental to trees and crops.

Over the past 20 years, winters have gotten warmer and less snowy. This raises questions about our ability to adapt. Ski areas offer a great example of adaptation; lack of natural snow has not prevented powder on the slopes. Available ski days have actually increased due to artificial snow machines. My favorite example of adaptation to warmer winters is the inflatable snowman. No snow - no problem, plug it in and pump it up.

Some aspects of climate change are easier to adapt to than others. Sea level rise is among the most difficult. We can build sea walls in highly populated areas, but we can't build them everywhere and the cost of erecting these walls will be tremendous. As the sea level rises, perhaps 18 inches over the next 50 years, there will be unavoidable and huge disruptions to coastal ecosystems. Loss of shoreline areas will have a profound impact on many coastal cities.

Effects will also be felt in inland areas. Throughout the U.S., many municipal water supplies rely on melting snow to refill reservoirs in the spring. As winter climate changes, a major challenge will be adapting to new snowmelt patterns. Research in many areas, including work by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Catskill Mountains, has shown that snowmelt is occurring earlier and faster, with implications for summertime water supply, reproduction of game fish, and stream ecosystem health.

It is also important to consider the indirect effects of changes in temperature and precipitation. For instance, when snow blankets the ground it helps insulate the soil. In the absence of snow, soil is more prone to freezing. In work funded by the National Science Foundation, IES scientists and colleagues have investigated how soil freezing harms tree roots, leading to nutrient loss from forest ecosystems. Once released, these nutrients can degrade water quality in streams. Studies show that sugar maple, our leading fall foliage producer, is especially susceptible to soil freezing damage.

The long-term prognosis for winter climate change is not good. Band-aid solutions, such as inflatable snowmen, won't protect and preserve shorelines, forested ecosystems, or water quality. In a changing world, managing these resources requires investments in research on the direct and indirect effects of climate change and the delivery of that knowledge to decision makers who must address the climate issue.

Dr. Peter Groffman is a microbial ecologist at the Institute of Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, NY.

Union of Concerned Scientists
Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts, and Solutions

IES Long-term Environmental Monitoring Data